The challenges after Mbeki

Financial Times, Published: September 21 2008

It is a measure of how far and how fast Thabo Mbeki’s star has fallen that few in South Africa will mourn his departure from office.

In his nine years in power, brought to an abrupt end this weekend by his rivals in the ruling African National Congress, Nelson Mandela’s successor has presided over the country’s longest uninterrupted period of growth since the second world war and nurtured the growth of a black middle class – a crucial development for the health of the post-apartheid state.

Yet on his watch the ANC has pursued disastrous policies over Aids and the crisis in neighbouring Zimbabwe. The party has also become embroiled in corruption scandals and many of its senior figures have showed worrying signs of being more interested in business deals than in governing.

His legacy is a country that is more prosperous but arguably more racially and economically polarised than when he took over. South Africa has more people with Aids than any other country. Aids activists argue that for his links to the dissident scientists who dispute a link between HIV and Aids alone, he should long since have been forced to resign.

So the ANC, the dominant political party, should be commended for showing signs of democratic health – a rare sentiment in a former African liberation movement – and opting to give someone else a chance. Yet there are many reasons for misgivings about what comes next. Mr Mbeki’s missteps have handed the presidency on a plate to Jacob Zuma, a sometime populist whom he fired as deputy president three years ago.

Mr Zuma has a controversial recent past. He has twice been charged with corruption relating to his relationship with his former financial adviser who is now serving a 15-year prison sentence for procuring a bribe for him from a French arms company. Both cases collapsed on technicalities, the second 10 days ago when the judge found there was evidence of political malice in the timing of the prosecution.

But the reputation of Mr Zuma, the ANC leader who seems set to succeed Mr Mbeki as president next year, is still dogged by these allegations. They will overshadow South Africa’s reputation as will his close ties to radicals who have propelled him to power. Mr Zuma has yet to show he has the backbone to do what is good for the country’s long-term health rather than what is politically expedient. Six months of uncertainty lie ahead before elections, a period in which he and the “new” ANC have much to prove.