Les Ministres mauriciens Sithanen et Bheenick plaident pour l’intégration régionale

Le vice-Premier ministre et ministre des Finances et de l’Economic Empowerment Rama Sithanen et le gouverneur de la Banque de Maurice (BoM) Rundheersingh Bheenick ont tous deux plaidé pour une attention particulière à l’intégration régionale et le commerce, qui peuvent accélérer la reprise économique.

“L’intégration régionale a un rôle clé à jouer à cet égard, en particulier à travers un coup de pouce au commerce, soutenu par une meilleure productivité et en attirant les investissements directs étrangers nécessaires en vue d’atteindre un plus haut niveau de développement socio-économique”, a fait ressortir Rama Sithanen jeudi.

C’était lors de son discours d’ouverture de la 14e réunion du Comité des gouverneurs des Banques centrales du COMESA, à l’hôtel Intercontinental, à Balaclava. “We need more trade, not aid”, a pour sa part dit le gouverneur de la BoM.

“Il est prévu que volume du commerce mondial des commodités et services chute par 12 % en 2009, reflétant la baisse de demande et le manque de financement pour le commerce. Néanmoins, le plaidoyer des leaders du G20 pour soutenir le cycle de Doha pour des discussions sur le commerce ne serait pas le même durant les prochains mois, étant donné que le commerce demeure faible. En effet, les désaccords commerciaux sont en hausse, particulièrement entre la Chine et les Etats-Unis”, a souligné Rama Sithanen.

“Concernant notre région, la situation demeure toujours pleine de défis. Après une croissance soutenue pendant presque une décennie, l’on prévoit un ralentissement de l’économie de l’Afrique sub-saharienne de 1 % en 2009, en raison des exportations en baisse”, a expliqué le Grand argentier.

Commentant le rôle du COMESA dans la région, le ministre des Finances, Rama Sithanen devait affirmer “nous saluons le lancement de l’Union douanière du COMESA en juin 2009 et prévoyons la mise en place de la zone de libre échange COMESA-SADC-EAC. Nous devons optimiser nos bénéfices de l’intégration régionale. Nous devons continuer à travailler pour réduire les barrières tarifaires restantes, promouvoir le Cross Border Investment et harmoniser les normes et procédures douanières”.

Source

La crise politique à Madagascar évoquée lors du Sommet du COMESA

Le président de la République de Madagascar Marc Ravalomanana a été invité par le président du COMESA pour assister avec la première Dame, Lalao Ravalomanana au 13ème Sommet du Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) à Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe, les 07 et 08 juin 2009.

Le Djibouti, le Kenya, l’Ouganda, le Swaziland, le Soudan, la Zambie, les Seychelles et Madagascar ont été représentés par leurs Chefs d’État. Le Burundi et Malawi ont été représentés par leurs vice-Présidents. L’Éthiopie, la Libye, l’Érythrée, le Rwanda, Maurice, l’Égypte, la République Démocratique du Congo et la Tanzanie ont envoyé des Ministres. Étaient également présents, le Vice-président de la Commission de l’Union Africaine, le Secrétaire Exécutif de la SADC et le Président de la Banque Africaine de Développement.

Le thème du Sommet est « Consolidons l’intégration régionale à travers la valeur ajoutée, le commerce et la sécurité alimentaire ». L’ « Union douanière » du COMESA est aussi lancée officiellement à l’occasion du Sommet.

Le nouveau bureau du COMESA a été présenté au cours de la cérémonie d’ouverture du sommet le dimanche 07 juin, avec à la Présidence le Zimbabwe succédant au Kenya et à la Vice-présidence le Swaziland.

Au cours de l’après-midi, les Chefs d’État et de Gouvernement ont écouté les rapports des Conseils des Ministres sur les Affaires Administratives et Financières, ainsi que sur la Paix et la Sécurité dans la région.

C’est à cette occasion que la parole a été donnée au président Marc Ravalomanana pour présenter la situation sur la crise politique à Madagascar.

Des commentaires, des échanges d’informations et des propositions de résolutions à adopter ont suivi la présentation du président Marc Ravalomanana. Le cas de Madagascar a été traité pendant environ soixante-quinze minutes.

Les points forts lors de la séance de prise de parole ont été les suivants :

• condamnation ferme du changement anti-constitutionnel à Madagascar
• laisser la SADC conduire les actions devant rétablir l’ordre constitutionnel et soutenir cette organisation régionale
• ne plus se contenter de communiqués et de résolutions, mais prendre des mesures effectives
• parler d’une même voix et agir dans la même voie quand une position est prise officiellement lors d’un sommet

L'Afrique australe au chevet de Madagascar et du Zimbabwe

AFP - 30/03/2009

La Communauté de développement d'Afrique australe (SADC) se réunit ce lundi pour discuter de la crise politique à Madagascar et du marasme économique dans lequel est englué le Zimbabwe. La SADC pourrait décider de sanctions contre la Grande Ile: elle ne reconnaît pas son président de transition, Andry Rajoelina, arrivé au pouvoir après une démission forcée du chef de l'Etat Marc Ravalomanana.

Les dirigeants d'Afrique australe devaient discuter lundi, lors d'un sommet extraordinaire au Swaziland, d'éventuelles sanctions contre les autorités de transition malgaches et son président Andry Rajoelina, que le bloc régional refuse de reconnaître. 

Les leaders de la Communauté de développement d'Afrique australe (SADC) réfléchiront aux moyens de "ramener la démocratie, l'Etat de Droit et la constitutionnalité" à Madagascar, a indiqué le gouvernement sud-africain, qui préside actuellement le bloc régional.

"Tous les pays-membres ont confirmé leur participation, sauf Madagascar", a précisé le ministère des Affaires étrangères swazi, sans préciser à quels responsables malgaches l'invitation avait été adressée.

La SADC refuse de reconnaître toute légitimité au président de transition, Andry Rajoelina. L'ancien opposant a été porté au pouvoir par l'armée après la démission forcée de l'ex-président Marc Ravalomanana, réfugié cette semaine au Swaziland.

Vers des "sanctions adaptées" ?

L'organe de sécurité de la SADC a même évoqué le 19 février la possibilité de "sanctions adaptées (…) pour rétablir l'ordre" à Madagascar, où la crise a fait une centaine de morts depuis janvier.

Les chefs d'Etat et de gouvernement devraient donc sanctionner les nouvelles autorités malgaches, selon l'analyste sud-africain Siphamandla Zondi, de l'Institut pour le dialogue global.

"A part ça, il n'y a pas grand chose qu'ils puissent faire pour marquer leur objection au coup d'Etat", a-t-il estimé.

Cette fermeté contrasterait avec le ton habituel de la SADC, qui a très rarement pris des mesures concrètes contre l'un de ses 15 pays-membres, même en cas de violations des droits de l'Homme, comme au Zimbabwe.

Dans ce pays, les élections générales - organisées il y a tout juste un an - avaient été suivies de nombreuses violences politiques, attribuées par l'ONU aux partisans du président Robert Mugabe.

Sauver le Zimbabwe de la crise économique

Mais depuis le scrutin, tous les sommets du bloc régional sur le Zimbabwe ont visé à favoriser le dialogue entre les parties plutôt qu'à condamner le régime en place.

Cette approche a poussé le président Mugabe et son rival historique, Morgan Tsvangirai, à former à la mi-février un gouvernement d'union nationale qui s'est depuis tourné vers ses voisins pour obtenir une aide économique indispensable au redressement du pays, englué dans une hyperinflation inouïe, un chômage de masse et des pénuries chroniques.

Fin février, les ministres des Finances de la SADC réunis au Cap avaient promis d'aider Harare à rassembler deux milliards de dollars (1,5 milliard d'euros), sans toutefois promettre d'aide directe. Lundi, les leaders du bloc régional "débattront de ce plan de reconstruction économique et des moyens d'avancer", selon le gouvernement sud-africain.

"La région a beaucoup investi en terme de ressources, d'image et d'intégrité" dans les négociations zimbabwéennes et ne pourra pas se passer d'une aide économique, estime pour sa part Siphamandla Zondi. "Elle va certainement offrir une assistance ciblée sur certains secteurs prioritaires, comme l'agriculture et certains services sociaux de base."

"Même si la région souhaite aider le Zimbabwe, il n'est pas évident qu'elle trouvera l'argent", souligne toutefois l'analyste indépendant Laurence Caromba, en notant que "les pays les plus riches, comme l'Afrique du Sud, sont aujourd'hui en déficit budgétaire à cause de la crise économique mondiale."

SA may be excluded from SADC EPA

Le Roux, Mathabo (Business Day, Johannesburg) 2009-03-17 

A meeting held in Swakopmund, Namibia last week between the European Commission (EC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) group failed to break an impasse over concerns raised by South Africa over the economic partnership agreement (EPA), despite significant further concessions by the European Union (EU) to sweeten the deal.

The EU is likely to sign an interim EPA with countries of SADC without South Africa.

According to a source close to the talks, it is likely the EU will ask to be given the go-ahead to prepare to sign the interim deal as all attempts to bring SA back into the talks have failed. This will see Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland signing the deal, leaving South Africa, the only other member of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), out of the deal.

The EU agreed to favourable terms for protection of infant industries which could see the countries in the SADC configuration exclude sectors earmarked for development from liberalisation. The EU also allowed existing export taxes, used to encourage beneficiation, to continue, giving scope for new export taxes to be introduced as well.

Brussels has also modified its demand on the quantitative restrictions on exports in favour of the SADC group, and the parties agreed on the free circulation of goods to facilitate trade in the region.

Sources say that Namibia, which shared South Africa’s concerns, has been won over by the EU’s concessions, indicating that it would sign an interim deal which would clear the way for the Commission to propose a date for signature to legitimate trade relations between Europe and the region.

The EU has been extending preferences to the region unilaterally in breach of World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules since the expiry of a waiver on the Cotonou Agreement in December 2008. Europe is anxious to bring its trade relations with SADC in line with trade rules in order to avoid a WTO challenge.

Jorge Peydro-Aznar, European Commission (EC) head of trade in Pretoria, was positive about the progress made at the meeting. “Good progress was made on most concerns. We remain hopeful of a deal, because we need to address the WTO compatibility issue as a matter of urgency”, he said.

South Africa’s chief trade negotiator Xavier Carim was also confident about the talks although indicated that no movement had been made on the most-favoured nation (MFN) demand and the legal status of the parties. The MFN clause states that concessions made to countries whose trade exceeds more than 1% of world trade, in future trade agreements, be automatically extended to the EU.

The other major issue that remained unresolved, of the eight discussed, was the fact that the SADC region is negotiating EPAs under four configurations, which SA argued would hamper plans for future regional integration.

“We did well on most issues. There is scope for further progress, but it is not clear if we will get another chance to talk”, Carim said.

The EC offered to raise the threshold of countries’ portions of world trade last week to 1.5%, and agreed to limit the MFN requirement exclusively to customs duties. South Africa said this was still not acceptable.

The EC was due to report back to member states on the status of the talks on Friday.

The reported concessions made on SA's concerns for the Interim EPA

By JB Cronjé, a tralac Researcher

The SADC EPA group met with their negotiating partner, the EC, last week to solve the concerns South Africa has had for not initialing the Interim EPA. Media reports have it that the EC made concessions on all of South Africa’s concerns including on its MFN demand save for excluding it completely. Apparently, the remaining concern is the perceived negative impact the EPA’s will have on integration efforts in the region. It is difficult to see how this particular issue could ever be resolved through negotiations with the EC.

The SADC-EPA negotiations were launched in July 2004 but were suspended in 2005 with both parties agreeing that regional integration in Southern Africa could not be achieved without addressing the trade consequences of the EC-SA Trade Development and Cooperation Agreement on the other members of the Southern African Customs Union. Consequently on 7 March 2006 SADC tabled a proposal to the EC to formally associate South Africa in the SADC EPA. On 23 February 2007 the EC Council of Ministers approved the proposal to include South Africa into the configuration as an active negotiating party.

However, South Africa did not initial the Interim EPA on 13 November of that year but agreed to continue negotiations towards a full EPA. Subsequently South Africa together with Namibia and Angola issued a joint concerns paper in May 2008. It is these concerns that have remained on the table. Notably, Namibia apparently accepted the concessions made by the EC at the meeting last week and is set to sign the agreement.

This brings us to the following questions:

* How will South Africa respond to the concessions?

* How will the concessions be incorporated in the agreement; in particular if the SADC EPA Group excluding South Africa signs a deal with the EC? 

Le chantier de la plus grande zone économique en butte aux réalités

La volonté a été fortement affirmée de fusionner les trois communautés économiques de l’Afrique australe et de l’Est, mais les obstacles restent nombreux.

Par Chérif Elvalide Sèye, Dakar, (Article du numéro 64 de Les Afriques du 26 février au 4 mars 2009)

De l’Egypte à l’Afrique du Sud, et de la République Démocratique du Congo au Kenya, la plus grande zone de libre-échange du continent est en chantier. Elle compterait 26 pays, totalisant un produit national brut cumulé de 625 milliards de dollars pour une population totale de 527 millions. Ce grand bloc représenterait, selon les experts, 60% du PIB du continent. La décision en a été prise le 22 octobre 2008 à l’occasion du premier sommet qui a réuni à Kampala, les trois organisations régionales que compte la zone, la COMESA), la CAE et la SADC. Les trois organismes devraient donc fusionner en une seule communauté économique régionale avec un Accord de libre échange. « Un programme pour l’harmonisation des arrangements commerciaux, la liberté de circulation des hommes d’affaires et la mise en œuvre conjointe de programmes d’infrastructures interrégionales, ainsi que d’arrangements institutionnels que les Communautés économiques régionales utiliseraient pour promouvoir le développement » a été adopté.

Le Sommet tripartite qui n’a réuni que cinq chefs d’Etat sur la vingtaine attendue, a invité les trois blocs régionaux à lui proposer, chacun en ce qui le concerne, dans les six mois, « une feuille de route pour les trois zones commerciales, un cadre juridique et un train de mesures pour faciliter la circulation des hommes d’affaires », selon le communiqué final.

Discours volontariste

Le président Yoweri Museveni, hôte du sommet, a même proposé la mise en place d’une armée commune dans une fédération politique, pour prendre en charge les questions de sécurité dans la région. Le discours a été très volontariste, mais il faudra plus que des mots pour venir à bout des nombreux obstacles sur le chemin de l’intégration. Au premier rang, l’appartenance de plusieurs pays à plus d’une zone ayant des objectifs et des niveaux d’intégration très différents.

La COMESA a déjà réalisé l’Union douanière (partiellement) et défini ses critères de convergence des politiques macroéconomiques, se fixant pour objectif un marché commun et une union économique complète. La SADC, en plus de l’Union douanière totalement réalisée, a aussi réalisé l’harmonisation du droit des affaires et défini ses critères de convergence des politiques macroéconomiques. Elle partage, avec la COMESA, l’objectif ultime d’une Union économique complète.

APE

Les Accords de Partenariat économique constituent aussi une grosse pomme de discorde tant les étapes peuvent différer d’un pays à l’autre, d’une communauté à l’autre. Le Kenya, l’Ouganda, la Tanzanie, le Burundi et le Rwanda appartenant à la Communauté d’Afrique de l’Est ont déjà paraphé un APE intérimaire avec l’Union européenne, alors que Maurice, les Seychelles, les Comores, Madagascar et le Zimbabwe en ont également signé, mais avec des engagements d’élimination tarifaire séparés. Enfin, sept Pays moins avancés, Djibouti, Somalie, Érythrée, Éthiopie, Soudan, Malawi et Zambie ont refusé de signer et commercent avec l’UE grâce à l’initiative Tout sauf les armes (TSA).

L’année 2009, décisive pour cet ambitieux projet, s’annonce malheureusement très délicate au plan politique pour plusieurs pays. Outre le Zimbabwe, où le gouvernement d’union tarde toujours à se mettre en place, des élections doivent se tenir en Angola, au Botswana, au Malawi, au Mozambique, en Namibie et en Afrique du Sud.

Le gouvernement réfléchit aux implications d’une union douanière

Source: L'EXpress de MAurice

Le gouvernement réfléchit aux implications pour Maurice de créer une union douanière. A cette fin, une session de brainstorming aura lieu le 2 mars, en la présence d’un expert, Mathew Stern.

Une session de travail d’une demi-journée, sur les implications d’un lancement d’une union douanière, sera organisée sous la présidence du ministre des Affaires étrangères, Arvin Boolell, le deuxième jour du mois de mars, à l’Hôtel du gouvernement. 

Le but de cet exercice est de permettre aux autorités concernées de comprendre la complexité du fonctionnement d’une union douanière. Il est aussi question de savoir si Maurice est capable de prendre des décisions réfléchies quant à la position du pays sur ce sujet.

Dans ce sens, Mathew Stern, auteur de l’ouvrage «Study on the evaluation of an appropriate model for SADC Customs Union» et membre du Development Network Africa (DNA) basé au Afrique du Sud, assurera une présentation graduée.

Il expliquera la procédure d’intégration régionale, c’est-à-dire, les rouages du Preferential Trading Arrangement (PTA) - accords de commerce préférentiel, le Free Trade Area (FTA) – zone de libre-échange et de la procédure d’union douanière.

Mathew Stern se concentrera sur les difficultés techniques auxquelles un pays est confronté dans la création d’une union douanière. Il abordera également les réalités de la région, tels que les Etats membres à la fois de la SADC et de COMESA.

Enfin ce spécialiste des affaires douanières soulignera les implications et les défis auxquels Maurice devra faire face si elle opte pour l’union douanière. Puis, il terminera sa présentation en parlant de l’initiative tripartite de la SADC, de COMESA et du East African Community (EAC) et de la marche à suivre pour Maurice.

EU, SADC discuss Economic Partnership Agreements

Owino, Wene (Business Daily, Nairobi) 2009-02-12 

European Union (EU) Trade Commissioner Catherine Ashton was due to arrive in Botswana yesterday for talks with senior SADC officials. A statement from the EU said that Ashton and officials from the Southern African Development Community were to discuss ways of moving bilateral and inter-regional trade relationships forward.

She was expected to meet Trade Minister Neo Moroka and Foreign Minister Phandu Skelemani in Gaborone, as well as top officials from the southern African development bloc.

Ashton has been in South Africa this week were she was expected to meet Trade Minister Mandisi Mpahlwa and Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma as well as a group of ministers from other SADC members including Angola and Namibia.

The main reason for her visit was to discuss the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) which are meant to create a free trade area between the EU and countries in Africa, the Caribbean and Pacific (ACP).

Negotiations between the EU and SADC have been ongoing since 2004.

A key challenge in implementing the EPA is the reconciliation of the various trade relations in the region with the EU. Regional giant South Africa already has a Trade, Development and Cooperation Agreement (TDCA) with the EU which was signed in 1999.

The agreement is meant to create a free trade area between the EU and South Africa over a period of 12 years, as the EU opens its market to South African goods at a faster pace under the pact. South Africa has, according to some, been stalling on the EPA due to its desire to fall back on the TDCA.

The EPA negotiations were launched in 2004, but the matter is complicated by the 1999 agreement and the fact that South Africa was only officially brought on board in 2007. Further problems emerged when Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, and Swaziland signed an interim agreement with the EU at the end of 2007.

SA opted out of the deal, questioning its legality and raising concerns over the country’s infant industries. Other SADC signatories have in response threatened to conclude a final EPA deal with the EU even in SA’s absence.

“We have initialled the EPAs without South Africa and we can go ahead without South Africa”, Moroka said after the signing of the deal.

The relationship complications in the EPA negotiations are further exacerbated by the fact that the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) of four members needs to be taken into consideration.

Fears have been sparked that an EPA will hurt the tariff-reliant economies of Lesotho and Swaziland, who are members of SACU. Angola is allowed to join the deal as a least developed country (LDC). It has full access to the EU market under the Everything But Arms (EBA) provision.

Falling SACU revenues a concern for Manuel

Ensor, Linda (Business Day, Johannesburg) 2009-02-16 

South African Minister of Finance Trevor Manuel has expressed concern about the effect the global recession will have on countries that derive a large part of their national income from the revenue pool of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU).

SACU members – SA and Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland (BLNS) – combine their customs and excise revenue into a common revenue pool that is then divided under a revenue-sharing formula.

South Africa’s transfers to the rest of SACU are forecast to fall by R1 billion in the coming fiscal year to R27.9 billion and by a further R1.5 billion in the following year. Lesotho, a least developed country (LDC), and Swaziland will be most vulnerable to the contraction as they derive up to half their national revenue from the customs union.

“The impact of the falling revenues on Lesotho is very worrying”, Manuel said. Revenue from SACU contributes more than 20% of the total budget revenue for Botswana and Namibia.

In reply to questions on the national budget tabled last week, Manuel said that the revenue pool would shrink with the decline in imports. New car imports, which tend to be cyclical, are expected to drop sharply, as are imports related to the construction of soccer stadiums.

The budget review noted that revenue from customs duties is “extremely volatile”, performing above expectation when the economy is growing strongly but poorly when the economy slows.

“Customs duties for 2008-09 are expected to be R7 billion less than expected. Where member states rely on this revenue to finance a significant part of their expenditure, falling import growth will present a substantial challenge to coming budgets.”

Between 2000-01 and 2006-07, revenue transfers paid from the revenue pool to the BLNS members grew by 22% a year as a result of strong growth in imports and growing demand for high-tariff imports such as cars.

In 2006-07, the revenue pool amounted to R41.3 billion, of which 98% derived from SA and only R790 million from the other four countries.

Issues of sustainability will be discussed at the next SACU meeting in April 2009.

La SADC réfléchit à un visa unique pour les touristes de la Coupe du monde 2010

La Communauté de développement de l'Afrique australe(SADC) est en train de réfléchir à la mise en place d'un visa unique pour la Coupe du monde 2010 de football prévue en Afrique du Sud.

S'exprimant après la réunion de la SADC sur le tourisme tenue en Namibie, des officiels de la SADC ont déclaré que les pays de la SADC ont accepté de réfléchir à un visa d'entrée unique pour tous les pays de l'Afrique australe.

"C'est une autre manière de baisser les coûts pour que les touristes ne formulent pas des demandes de visas dans chaque pays de la SADC. La réduction des coûts pour les touristes est un autre moyen de proposer un autre outil de marketing. Nous serons en mesure d'exploiter le marché sans être en concurrence ", a déclaré M. Mokaila, ministre botswanais.

Selon M. Mokaila, les ministres de la SADC en charge du tourisme ont discuté entre autres sur l’opportunité de tirer profit de la Coupe du monde 2010 prévue en Afrique du Sud.

Il a par ailleurs noté que les pays de la SADC ont exprimé leur préoccupation de voir l'Afrique du Sud organiser la Coupe du monde sans impliquer les autres Etats membres de la SADC.

Progress towards SADC foreign exchange

The Citizen - PRETORIA - 17 / 02/ 2009

Progress was being made towards the goal of travellers being able to exchange foreign currency in SADC countries, the Southern Africa Postal Operators Association (Sapoa) said on Tuesday.

“The process is now in its implementation stage,” said Sapoa executive director Kaynet Moyo.

This followed a February quarterly meeting of Sapoa officers. The meeting was a follow up to a decision last May to give Southern African Development Community postal operators the opportunity to run exchange bureaux.

“This means that once the Post Office has finalised the legal formalities with the relevant reserve banks, customers will be able to walk into any post office and exchange money, as is now the case in Zambia and Zimbabwe,” said Moyo.

This would form a 'one-stop shop’ which provided improved access to money transfers and delivery networks.

Sapoa said it would also publish a customer charter, detailing service levels that should be expected within the SADC region.

Putting the 'sad' in SADC

By Matthew Hill

The mining slump raises fears about the wider social impact

Instead of the bacon, thousands of foreign mineworkers are going to have to return home with retrenchment letters as the resources downturn hits home.

This spells trouble for neighbouring states piggybacking on SA's mining sector for employment. Mining is by far the biggest employer of migrant labour, at 50%, with the next biggest being manual labour's 10%.

Remittances play a big role in neighbouring countries. In Swaziland, they account for 4,2% of GDP. In Lesotho, it's about a fifth of GDP, while remittances make up about 25% of foreign earnings. Money sent back to families mainly buys food.

Mozambique and Lesotho have compulsory remittances pay, meaning workers have to send a percentage of their earnings back home.

The SA Institute of International Affairs' Tim Hughes says the effect of the imminent retrenchments won't be as great as 10 years ago - when migrant labour accounted for nearly 60% of SA's 563 000 mining workforce - but it will be felt. Foreign workers make up about half that percentage now.

A major restructuring of SA's mining workforce took place from 1990 to 1996, as 45% of mineworkers lost their jobs. Proportionately SA workers suffered the most during this period, with foreign labour ballooning to 59% of all mineworkers in 1997.

Declining employment in the gold sector since 1970 has obviously had an effect. "Retrenchments have had a significant impact on the national economy in Lesotho, due to the loss of remittances," according to a UN report published in April. With announcements from both DRDGold and Simmer & Jack Mines about job cuts in recent weeks, the trend is continuing. This is despite the rand gold price being at near record highs.

The UN's International Research & Training Institute for the Advancement of Women report warns that these remittances are important for the receiving countries, and any structural shifts can have "dire consequences". Frost & Sullivan analyst Wonder Nyanjowa estimates job losses in SA's mining sector will reach 40 000 by the end of 2009. The mining workforce was nearly 500 000 in 2007. In supply and support sectors, the retrenchment figure could hit 150 000.

Government has been quick to respond to the crisis. This week it called an urgent meeting with unions and the Chamber to try to "soften the blow" of job losses. It has set up a task team that has 20 days to come up with a strategy to minimise retrenchments.

The FM was not able to get comment from the Lesotho and Mozambican governments.

Gold mines have historically been the biggest absorber of migrant labour, but platinum has been a growing employer of Mozambicans. Just about all cross-border mine workers in the gold sector are employed through labour bureaus with fixed-term contracts. These contracts stem from treaties between governments.

Though DRDGold and Simmers are the only gold miners that have announced layoffs, platinum company Lonmin has confirmed it is considering large-scale retrenchments. Up to 5 500 workers out of about 25 000 might have to go because of a 60% drop in the platinum price this year. Lonmin's bigger rivals, AngloPlat and Impala Platinum, have yet to say how many jobs will be lost.

Evaporating demand for ferrochrome, of which SA is the biggest global source, will also lead to job cuts. Uranium producer Uranium One is retrenching the 1 000-plus workforce at its mothballed Dominion mine near Klerksdorp.

National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) president Senzeni Zokwana says SA is headed for disaster if job losses and high food prices continue. If 40 000 mineworkers lose their jobs, that figure must be multiplied by 10, he adds - a mineworker has an average of that many dependants.

This will have serious social repercussions. Retrenched migrant workers will struggle to find any employment in their home countries, which offer fewer opportunities than SA.

Teba, a company that organises mining employment for SA companies in Lesotho, Mozambique, Swaziland and Botswana, says mining companies have a "social obligation to reskill" retrenched workers. Teba's Kevin Cotteril says this usually involves activities like brick making, chicken rearing and radio repairs.

Chamber of Mines industrial relations adviser Elize Strydom says individual mining companies usually engage the labour department when retrenchments are envisaged. The company and the department then work together to try to mitigate the negative effects of job losses. Efforts include imparting practical skills.

"Some businesses exploit the situation by employing foreign people, knowing they can pay them as little as they want," Zokwana says, adding that this creates social tension in communities where South Africans lose out. However, he dismisses the possibility of a recurrence of the xenophobic attacks that swept the country in May. The attacks weren't caused by unemployment, Zokwana says.

What Zokwana - also president of the International Federation of Chemical, Energy, Mine & General Workers' unions - does flag, though, is the possibility of higher unemployment leading to higher crime.

Zokwana says the 300 000-strong NUM "can never accept that our members will lose their jobs. I'm not saying that we'll go on strike, but we need to engage."

Government, labour and business need to get together to consider alternative measures that can be taken to minimise job losses in the mining sector, says Zokwana. "Can the state intervene and assist? The state has an interest in the mining industry as a source of foreign exchange, and it's also a major employer." He says both national and local government need to get involved, because the closure of a mine has a big impact on surrounding communities.

Zokwana adds the private sector must also not rush into mass retrenchments, only to be left without a workforce when commodity prices tick up again. The Chamber of Mines acknowledges this, and says retrenchments are a last resort.

The effect on migrant workers in the mining sector will be profound, but many more in neighbouring countries are dependent on SA for informal cross-border trade. These people will also suffer.

Angola ready to strengthen ties with Zambia

Angola has re-affirmed its committment to boosting economic ties with Zambia and other countries in the SADC region.

Angolan Ambassador to Zambia Pedro De Morais Neto says regional integration is key to economic development.

He was speaking in an interview with ZNBC news in Lusaka ahead of his country's national day which falls on Tuesday.

The Angolan envoy said his country is ready to enhance economic cooperation with Zambia and the entire SADC grouping.

Ambassador Morais Neto also said Angola's economy has registered positive growth over the past few years following the end of the civil war.

Angola got its independence from Portugal in 1975.

Les pays d'Afrique orientale et australe envisagent un plan d'intégration économique

19 octobre 2008 - XINHUA

Un sommet des pays d'Afrique orientale et australe est prévu la semaine prochaine à Kampala, capitale ougandaise, afin d'approuver un plan d'intégration économique, qui vise non seulement à coordonner la position commune régionale dans les négociations commerciales internationales, mais aussi à créer un grande marché commun.

La suppression des barrières commerciales entre la Communauté est-africaine (CEA), le Marché commun d'Afrique orientale et australe (COMESA) et la Communauté de développement d'Afrique australe (SADC) figurera haut sur l'ordre du jour de ce sommet tripartite.

Les 26 membres des trois blocs devraient approuver mercredi prochain un mécanisme institutionnel légal destiné à coordonner leur ultime vision de créer un super bloc commercial, a-t-on appris auprès de hauts responsables.

"Nous voulons avoir une base institutionnelle légale d'accord avec d'autres CER (communautés économiques régionales) sur les affaires qui se préparent", a indiqué Samuel Joao Caholo, le secrétaire général adjoint de la SADC.

C'est la première réunion des CER depuis la naissance de l'Union africaine, qui discutera des moyens de promouvoir l'intégration dans le cadre du Traité d'Abuja en vue de l'établissement de la Communauté économique africaine.

L'intégration en Afrique se trouve actuellement en difficulté, en raison des initiatives désordonnées, des conflits politiques et des échanges commerciaux insuffisants entre les régions.

En Afrique orientale et australe, un pays adhère souvent aux différents groupes régionaux. La Tanzanie est à la fois pays membre de la CEA et de la SADC, tandis que l'Ouganda, le Kenya, le Burndi et le Rwanda sont des pays membres de la CEA et du COMESA.

Cette multiple adhésion affaiblit leur capacité de négocier en tant que bloc dans les négociations commerciales internationales et défavorise leur participation à la concurrence commerciale mondiale.

"Le danger que nous trouvons est que si nous agissons séparément, notre union des droits douaniers s'écroulera, l'OMC ne reconnaîtra pas notre union des droits douaniers comme un bloc. Il y aura un problème si nous n'agissons pas en un groupe", a averti le premier vice-Premier ministre ougandais Eriya Kategaya.

L'intégration économique n'est plus une affaire de convenance pour l'Afrique, mais une stratégie cruciale pour la survie et le développement dans un monde de marginalisation mondiale, ont souligné des experts.

"Nous avons affiné notre connaissance des défis et des bénéfices que nous allons obtenir si nous commençons un processus de coordination", a déclaré M. Caholo.

Le sommet tripartite CEA-COMESA-SADC, prévu pour mercredi prochain, réunira les chefs d'État et de gouvernement des 26 pays membres. Ces trois blocs sont dotés d'une population de 527 millions d'habitants, d'un PIB de 624 milliards de dollars et d'un PIB par habitant de 1 184 dollars.

Le sommet devra discuter des affaires relatives au renforcement de la coopération entre les blocs, notamment dans le commerce, les investissements, les infrastructures, la communication d'informations et la technologie, selon les organisateurs.

Interview with Paulina Elago on SADC regional integration

Zain eyes $3-4 billion for acquisitions

By Ulf Laessing and Rania El Gamal, KUWAIT, Nov 6, 2008 (Reuters)

Kuwait's Mobile Telecommunications Co (Zain) plans to make four to five acquisitions worth up to $4 billion before 2010 with the global credit crisis depressing asset prices for telecom firms, its chief executive said.

Zain would seek to expand in Africa and the Middle East by buying majority stakes in companies or acquiring licenses, Saad al-Barrak told the Reuters Middle East Investment Summit being held this week in Kuwait and Dubai.

The third-largest Arab telecoms firm -- which already operates in 22 countries -- is looking at opportunities in South Africa, Rwanda, Cote D'Ivoire, Mali, Mozambique, Yemen, Syria and even Zimbabwe, a country ravaged by economic chaos and the world's highest inflation.

"That's the whole point ... Wherever there is danger there is opportunity, so you find us always swirling around danger," he said, when asked whether Zain could buy a Zimbabwe operator.

"In view of the current situation we have $3 to $4 billion in mind over the next 12 months," Barrak said late on Wednesday, alluding Zain could spend even more as it was keen to enter the "rest" of the Middle East where it was not active yet.

Up to $4 billion would be a "worst scenario in light of the credit crisis," he said. "We have bigger ambitions than that."

Zain would seek to buy 60 percent of its acquisition targets, but at least 51 percent, and would also consider moves into Asia from 2011 as part of plans to become one of the top 10 telecom operators in the world, Barrak added.

"Asia was always on our radar but we were too busy ... Still areas of great interest to us are Iran, Pakistan, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand," he said.

"We are focusing now on our priority in the Middle East and Africa were we want to become the absolute number one," he said.

Zain also planned to spend $2.5 billion in 2009 on general capital expenditures such as upgrading networks or investing, down from $3 billion this year, Barrak said.

To finance its growth, Zain would need to borrow $1.5 billion to $2 billion which Barrak is was confident of getting despite the credit crisis, he said. It already raised $4.5 billion through a rights issue in September despite a bourse slide.

EUROPEAN OFFER ON HOLD

Zain has been spending billions of dollars to expand abroad as competition heats up at home where VIVA, an affiliate of Saudi Telecom 7010.SE, is set to start operations by year-end.

Zain spent $3.4 billion on buying Celtel in 2005 and led a consortium to win a third Saudi mobile license for $6.1 billion.

Barrack said the Saudi operations, which drew over 1 million customers in under two months, would make a profit in three years.

EUROPEAN SHARE OFFER?

However, while the global financial turmoil has created opportunities for Zain to snap up assets it was not the right time to launch planned share sales in Europe and Bahrain, he said.

Zain said earlier this year it might raise up to $5 billion in an offering on a European exchange such as London (LSE.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) or on Euronext NYSE in Paris.

"We are ready (for these offerings) but we will wait until markets improve," Barrak said.

Zain, meanwhile, would stick with a 2009 profit growth forecast of 30 percent, Barrak said, adding he expected earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization of $4 billion and revenue of $9-$9.5 billion next year.

Net profit in 2008 would total around $1.18 billion, or roughly 320 million dinars, this year -- on a par with 2007 earnings of 320.45 million dinars. The company had earlier forecast earnings growth of 5 percent this year.

He added EBITDA would hit $3 billion this year after $2.56 billion in 2007, while revenue would rise to $7.2 billion from $5.91 billion the previous year, confirming earlier targets.

($1=.2695 Kuwaiti dinars)

Vodafone Announces Details of Vodacom Investment

­Vodafone has confirmed the details of its long anticipated plan to acquire an additional 15% stake in South Africa based Vodacom from Telkom SA for a cash consideration of ZAR22.5 billion (US$2.47 billion) less the pro rata consolidated attributable net debt of Vodacom Group of approximately ZAR1.55 billion (c.£0.1 billion). The transaction will increase Vodafone's shareholding in Vodacom Group from 50% to 65%.

Vodacom Group will be listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange ("JSE") and the remaining 35% of Vodacom Group will be demerged by Telkom to its shareholders. The Government of South Africa has agreed that it will retain a minimum shareholding of 10% in Vodacom Group for a period of 12 months after the listing on the JSE.

The plan to buy the 15% stake was originally announced at the beginning of last month. Telkom has been reviewing its mobile operations for more than a year, and at varying times has said it would be open to disposal, takeover or joint venture. Last November said it had broken off talks to sell its fixed-line operations to South Africa's MTN Group and an interest in Vodacom to Vodafone.

In June, Telkom was approached by a consortium of Mvela Holdings, Och-Ziff and other strategic investors interested in buying Telkom, but without its stake in Vodacom, but the talks broke down in September.

Vodafone has also committed to maintain the Vodacom brand-name and that Vodacom will be the exclusive investment vehicle through which it will make acquisitions in sub-Saharan Africa (excluding Ghana and Kenya where Vodafone is already present) - which will ensure that the South African government can benefit from any gains.

Commenting on the transaction, Vittorio Colao, Chief Executive of Vodafone, said "As a long-term investor in South Africa we are delighted to be increasing our shareholding in Vodacom Group, the country's leading mobile operator with a presence in four additional African markets. We will continue to support the management team in their strategy of transforming Vodacom into a full service provider in Africa and also look forward to playing a greater role in delivering the broader social benefits of mobile telecommunications in the continent. We are confident that the transaction will deliver value to our shareholders."

Vodacom is the number one operator in Tanzania, Lesotho and the Democratic Republic of Congo and the number two operator in Mozambique.

The transaction will be financed through existing cash resources and committed debt facilities.

The acquisition is subject to, among other conditions, approval by 75% of Telkom's shareholders and is interconditional upon Vodacom Group being listed on the JSE and Telkom demerging the remaining 35% of Vodacom Group to Telkom's shareholders. Telkom's two largest shareholders, the Government of South Africa and the Public Investment Corporation Limited, owning a combined 58%, have irrevocably committed to vote in favour of the transaction and will become significant shareholders in Vodacom Group following the completion of the transaction.

Zambian manufacturers concerned over Free Trade Area

By Michael Malakata , IDG News Service , 08/27/2008

The Zambia Association of Manufacturers (ZAM) has expressed concern over the newly launched Free Trade Area in the Southern African Development Community region, which will see the abolition of 85 percent duty on ICT and other products.

The Free Trade Area will allow cheap products to flood the Zambian market, negatively affecting the local manufacturing industry, ZAM President Dev Babbar said.

The removal of tax is aimed at allowing a free flow of products in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) region in order to promote regional integration. The Free Trade Area will also attract investment in local ICT equipment manufacturing by regional and foreign companies currently exporting their products to the regional market.

The region's presidents launched the Free Trade Area Aug.17 during the SADC Heads of State and Government Summit. The removal of tax involves 14 countries, including Mozambique, Namibia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia and South Africa.

"The government has already agreed on the Free Trade Area, but we are engaging them in a debate so that we can find a solution to the problem that will be caused on the manufacturing industry as a result," Babbar said.

The Zambia Association of Manufacturers will defend the manufacturing industry in Zambia by ensuring that the government comes up with measures to cushion the impact of the Free Trade Area on the country's manufacturing industry, he added.

SADC is a regional economic bloc based in Botswana and chartered to accelerate the region's economic development through increased trade.

SADC 'pragmatic' on economy

I-Net Bridge / Fin24, 3 November 2008

While both the ANC and the breakaway party launched at the weekend will compete in the "leftist space", the new party will probably be more pragmatic and the ANC will drift to more dogma.

This is the view of chief economist from Investment Solutions, Chris Hart, who feels that while the ANC may drift into less market-friendly policies under pressure from its alliance partners, the new party could adopt a degree of socialism that supports market practices.

"Things are never linear," he points out.

He highlights one of the big areas where economic change could take place is in the small and medium enterprise space - an area he feels the ANC may talk about, but is insensitive to the real needs of this sector.

He says industrial policy at the moment seems to favour few numbers of larger companies.

"I hope the new party is a genuine supporter of small and medium enterprises," he says.

"I hope they look to broaden the business base- this is where employment comes from," says Hart.

"My hope is the new party will come with a strategy on poverty reduction rather than just poverty alleviation," he emphasises.

One of the problems Hart foresees is that the country is entering a very difficult period for that he calls "good economics".

"We are going into an election in an economic slowdown," he says.

Desperation

"The problem is politicians get desperate at election time, where winning is all-important."

At times like this promises are often made which are not good for the tax base long term.

"I suspect we will see a bout of populism," says Hart. As an example, he says that the Democratic Party seems to want to outdo the ANC on social spending.

"That is clearly unsustainable," he says.

"I am not sure we will have a proper debate. My hope is there will be some difference and the new party will come with an economic growth strategy," he says.

He feels while the ANC moves down the path of looking to remove inflation targeting, the new party may be more supportive.

"It will probably be easier to have a balanced budget under the new party than under the ANC with the way the ANC is going," he said, pointing to the ANC call to make changes to money bills as seeming like a "free for all" when it comes to allocating resources.

"They could then allocate beyond the pool of resources, which increases the tax burden over time," he concludes.

The new party breaking away from the ANC under the leadership of Mosiuoa Lekota and Mbhazima Shilowa will be known as the South African Democratic Congress (SADC), it was announced on Monday.

While little has yet been said about their economic policy, this is going to be one of the key issues to emerge in the next few weeks and months as the debate heats up ahead of elections in the second quarter of the new year.

Le Kenya rejette les menaces d'un groupe islamiste somalien

KENYA - 23 octobre 2008 - XINHUA

Le gouvernement kenyan a rejeté les menaces d'un groupe islamiste somalien qui a averti qu'il attaquerait le Kenya si le pays ne revenait pas sur sa décision de former les forces gouvernementales somaliennes.

Lors d'une conférence de presse à Nairobi, le porte-parole du gouvernement kenyan Alfred Mutua a indiqué que son gouvernement ne répondait pas aux groupes illégaux tels que celui baptisé al- Shabaab qui est engagé dans une lutte armée contre le gouvernement de transition somalien.

"Nous avons une politique au gouvernement selon laquelle nous ne commentons pas les déclarations faites par les organisations que nous ne reconnaissons pas", a déclaré M. Mutua aux journalistes à Nairobi.

La semaine dernière, les islamistes somaliens ont affirmé qu'ils attaqueraient le Kenya si le pays continuait à mettre en œuvre son plan de former 10 000 troupes du gouvernement somalien. "Nous ordonnerons à tous nos combattants saints de lancer la guerre Jihad à l'intérieur du Kenya", a déclaré leur porte-parole, Cheikh Muktar Robow.

Cet avertissement intervient alors que les insurgés somaliens ont lancé une nouvelle vague d'attaques contre les troupes gouvernementales et les soldats de la paix à Mogadiscio.