SA: Out of negative trade territory
Thématique :
sud afrique
Le Roux, Mathabo; Business Day (Johannesburg) - 17/03/2008
Trade activity in the country slowed substantially towards the end of 2007, but seems now to be “clawing back, indicating a likely bottoming out of trade conditions”.
The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) said on Thursday that its trade activity index, which measures trade conditions across the economy, recovered from 44 in December last year to 48 in January, and levelled at 50 last month.
December’s figure was the lowest in over four years. The index was last that low in May 2003, just prior to interest rates declining during June of that year which set in motion the favourable trade conditions that lasted well into 2007. SACCI said that although the figure remained subdued in January, trade conditions now appear to be out of negative territory.
The sub-index on current volumes improved from a remarkably low 41 in December to 47 in January, further strengthening to 55 last month. Although not as strong as sales, the new orders sub-index recovered from 49 to 52 last month.
The trade expectations index has been more volatile, increasing to 57 in December, declining to 54 in January, and then recovering to 58 last month. According to SACCI, however, this is evidence that conditions might be stabilising at a somewhat improved level. Since July last year, when the index reached 67, it declined steeply to the more recent levels.
The sub-index on sales expectations reached 64 last month, recovering from 58 in January. Expectations on the new orders index improved by two points to reach a level of 60.
SACCI economist Richard Downing, commenting on the results, said that inflationary pressures remain a problem and currently appear to be gathering momentum.
Trade activity in the country slowed substantially towards the end of 2007, but seems now to be “clawing back, indicating a likely bottoming out of trade conditions”.
The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) said on Thursday that its trade activity index, which measures trade conditions across the economy, recovered from 44 in December last year to 48 in January, and levelled at 50 last month.
December’s figure was the lowest in over four years. The index was last that low in May 2003, just prior to interest rates declining during June of that year which set in motion the favourable trade conditions that lasted well into 2007. SACCI said that although the figure remained subdued in January, trade conditions now appear to be out of negative territory.
The sub-index on current volumes improved from a remarkably low 41 in December to 47 in January, further strengthening to 55 last month. Although not as strong as sales, the new orders sub-index recovered from 49 to 52 last month.
The trade expectations index has been more volatile, increasing to 57 in December, declining to 54 in January, and then recovering to 58 last month. According to SACCI, however, this is evidence that conditions might be stabilising at a somewhat improved level. Since July last year, when the index reached 67, it declined steeply to the more recent levels.
The sub-index on sales expectations reached 64 last month, recovering from 58 in January. Expectations on the new orders index improved by two points to reach a level of 60.
SACCI economist Richard Downing, commenting on the results, said that inflationary pressures remain a problem and currently appear to be gathering momentum.
