Study shows 15% renewable energy target financially viable in South Africa
Thématique :
sud afrique
By: Christy van der Merwe , 06/11/2008
Reaching a 15% renewable energy target by 2020 would not cost the earth, and in fact, it would be only slightly more expensive (about 15% more) than the average energy costs baseline in 2020, said University of Cape Town researcher Dr Andrew Marquard.
Proven, and rapidly developing technologies of wind and solar power were used for the study.
Addressing delegates at the National Renewable Energy conference in Sandton on Thursday, he noted that, combined with an energy efficiency programme, average electricity costs could be lower than the baseline for most of the period between 2015 and 2020.
“The 15% target is feasible and affordable. It is challenging to implement, particularly the investment costs, but significant sustainable development will result from this. Partner programmes are very important in reducing costs and benefiting mitigation," Marquard said.
With the additional sweetener of carbon finance for both the energy efficiency programme and the renewable energy programme, average electricity costs could drop to 18% below the baseline price by 2020, Marquard’s study showed.
Diversifying the energy mix away from coal formed an important part of the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism’s (Deat’s) long-term mitigation scenario process on climate change, and, targets for renewable energy’s contribution to this energy mix were yet to be set.
“Such a programme would have less of an impact on the electricity price, than this year’s price increase,” said Marquard. “The alternatives to electricity supply from coal in South Africa are renewable energy and nuclear. This study suggests that the renewables option is not more expensive than nuclear,” he added.
Not only was a 15% by 2020 target viewed as financially viable, but the study showed that greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions were similar – about 165-million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent could be saved over the period between 2006 and 2020. This was a 14% reduction of GHGs from the electricity sector, or about 6,5% of South Africa’s total GHG emissions. Even higher reductions, of up to 400-million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent could be saved should an energy efficiency programme be implemented as well.
He stated that the four areas where supportive programme would help reduce costs were: research and development; infrastructure development; industrial strategy and energy efficiency.
REGULATION AND TARGETS REQUIRED
A clear, certain and mandatory target is crucial to the success of the renewable energy programme. This target must be supported by a well-developed regulatory framework, said Marquard.
He proposed that the framework comprised a feed-in-tariff, for wind in the first instance, extended to solar thermal, once the tariff mechanism was proven, combined with subsidies and tax incentives for the development of solar thermal technology, and investment in expertise, capacity and capability as leaders of this international sector.
In order to meet a 15% by 2020 target, planning would have to start immediately and conclude by 2010, said Marquard.
Optimal implementation of such a target would need sophisticated policymaking and a high degree of coordination between stakeholders.
He noted that there were opportunities for South Africa to develop a competitive advantage in solar thermal technologies, and establish South African industry and technicians as front-runners in this area of the rapidly expanding international renewable energy sector.
He explained that China had installed 3 000 MW of wind power in 2007 alone, and the country has become a major producer of wind turbines.
Additional costs could be financed through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), whereby developing countries could garner carbon funding through GHG abatement projects. It was largely suggested that South Africa had not taken advantage of the benefits available through the CDM.
Marquard said that there was also scope for direct grant funding from government for technology development programmes.
“South Africa has the necessary institutional, technical and physical infrastructure to achieve this target, and committing to such a target would put South Africa in a leading position internationally among developing countries, making renewables part of a measurable, reportable, and verifiable mitigation action,” Marquard concluded.
Reaching a 15% renewable energy target by 2020 would not cost the earth, and in fact, it would be only slightly more expensive (about 15% more) than the average energy costs baseline in 2020, said University of Cape Town researcher Dr Andrew Marquard.
Proven, and rapidly developing technologies of wind and solar power were used for the study.
Addressing delegates at the National Renewable Energy conference in Sandton on Thursday, he noted that, combined with an energy efficiency programme, average electricity costs could be lower than the baseline for most of the period between 2015 and 2020.
“The 15% target is feasible and affordable. It is challenging to implement, particularly the investment costs, but significant sustainable development will result from this. Partner programmes are very important in reducing costs and benefiting mitigation," Marquard said.
With the additional sweetener of carbon finance for both the energy efficiency programme and the renewable energy programme, average electricity costs could drop to 18% below the baseline price by 2020, Marquard’s study showed.
Diversifying the energy mix away from coal formed an important part of the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism’s (Deat’s) long-term mitigation scenario process on climate change, and, targets for renewable energy’s contribution to this energy mix were yet to be set.
“Such a programme would have less of an impact on the electricity price, than this year’s price increase,” said Marquard. “The alternatives to electricity supply from coal in South Africa are renewable energy and nuclear. This study suggests that the renewables option is not more expensive than nuclear,” he added.
Not only was a 15% by 2020 target viewed as financially viable, but the study showed that greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions were similar – about 165-million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent could be saved over the period between 2006 and 2020. This was a 14% reduction of GHGs from the electricity sector, or about 6,5% of South Africa’s total GHG emissions. Even higher reductions, of up to 400-million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent could be saved should an energy efficiency programme be implemented as well.
He stated that the four areas where supportive programme would help reduce costs were: research and development; infrastructure development; industrial strategy and energy efficiency.
REGULATION AND TARGETS REQUIRED
A clear, certain and mandatory target is crucial to the success of the renewable energy programme. This target must be supported by a well-developed regulatory framework, said Marquard.
He proposed that the framework comprised a feed-in-tariff, for wind in the first instance, extended to solar thermal, once the tariff mechanism was proven, combined with subsidies and tax incentives for the development of solar thermal technology, and investment in expertise, capacity and capability as leaders of this international sector.
In order to meet a 15% by 2020 target, planning would have to start immediately and conclude by 2010, said Marquard.
Optimal implementation of such a target would need sophisticated policymaking and a high degree of coordination between stakeholders.
He noted that there were opportunities for South Africa to develop a competitive advantage in solar thermal technologies, and establish South African industry and technicians as front-runners in this area of the rapidly expanding international renewable energy sector.
He explained that China had installed 3 000 MW of wind power in 2007 alone, and the country has become a major producer of wind turbines.
Additional costs could be financed through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), whereby developing countries could garner carbon funding through GHG abatement projects. It was largely suggested that South Africa had not taken advantage of the benefits available through the CDM.
Marquard said that there was also scope for direct grant funding from government for technology development programmes.
“South Africa has the necessary institutional, technical and physical infrastructure to achieve this target, and committing to such a target would put South Africa in a leading position internationally among developing countries, making renewables part of a measurable, reportable, and verifiable mitigation action,” Marquard concluded.
